Tampilkan postingan dengan label Urban Planning. Tampilkan semua postingan
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Rabu, 17 Agustus 2011

Sterling Ranch Gets Preliminary Approval

CAVEAT: Trapped in a blog time warp - originally posted in May.

Douglas County commissioners gave preliminary approval Wednesday night to the Sterling Ranch development, despite concerns by some about water, traffic and how the massive project will affect the quality of life in the Chatfield Basin. The vote all but ends several years of meetings, public input and revisions by the developer.



When complete, Sterling Ranch, south of Chatfield State Park and east of Roxborough State Park, would be home to 31,000 people and include 12,050 housing units on 3,400 acres.



The approval is subject to technical corrections in the plan, which will be ratified at a meeting May 31. Sterling Ranch officials hope to start moving dirt by next year and building homes in 2013.


From here.



The amount of regulatory work necessary to win approval for this plan, already within the density guidelines of the existing urban plan, suggests that conservative distaste for government regulation does not extend to urban planning by local governments.
READ MORE - Sterling Ranch Gets Preliminary Approval

Kamis, 11 Agustus 2011

Why didn't the predicted surge in teen crime happen?

Conservative criminologist John DiIulio called the fearsome horde "super-predators." He estimated that they'd number nearly 200,000 by now. Even unflappable Attorney General Janet Reno foresaw violent crime doubling among kids. . . . William Bennett, the former drug czar . . . wrote a 1996 book with DiIulio on the topic, titled "Body Count," which attributed the problem to moral decay. . . . It never happened. . . . Instead, Americans are experiencing the sharpest decline in teen crime in modern history. . . .

[Why?]

Probably more important than tighter school security . . . were these factors:

In the decade of economic expansion that ended in 2000, the number of older teens who were neither in school nor at full-time jobs dropped by nearly a third. . . . Prosperity . . . gave teens more and better options to crime. . . .

The Latino population in central cities swelled as teen crime declined. . . . Their influx . . . brought more intact families, stronger values, higher religious participation - and lower crime rates. At the same time, many of the black families they replaced moved to suburbs where poverty was less concentrated. "Kids once confined to the inner city started seeing lifestyles other than the street." . . .

Criminologists decided in the `90s to track what worked and what didn't in dealing with teen crime. Boot camps didn't work. . . . Nor did trying juveniles in adult courts. Big Brother and Big Sister mentoring worked. Foster care for delinquents worked better than lock-ups if foster parents were well trained and the goal was to return the delinquents to well-coached biological parents. Suspending delinquent kids from school or leaving them back didn't work. . . . They found that if one parent is strong and consistent, the second isn't missed when it comes to preventing delinquency.

The incarceration rate rose from 1 per 1,000 adults to 4 from the `80s to today, and it has many foes. But . . . jailing more adults sharply reduced the number of teens who commit crimes with adult accomplices.

Economist Levitt attributes teen crime's sharp drop to a reduction in unwanted children, which began with the Supreme Court's Roe v. Wade decision in 1973. Criminologist Zimring, among others, thinks it contributed but isn't as big a factor
as Levitt argues.

From here.

These gems come from a blog associated with The Atlantic magazine, linked to at Enik Rising.

It ties into a Denver Post rehash of a local think tank report on population growth in Denver neighborhoods that I saw today. Three of the top five: Green Valley Ranch, Stapleton, and Lowry, are unsurprising. They are neighborhoods that were previously uninhabited that have seen major residential development in recent years.

The other two, Five Points and Montbello, are cases that fit the dynamic described above in which neighborhoods that used to be predominantly black ghettos with dire poverty that have seen major influxes of Hispanics, as well as others, in a combination of ethnic shifts and gentrification as many black residents of these neighborhoods have moved to suburbs or to central city suburban style neighborhoods like multi-ethnic Green Valley Ranch.

Another place in the metro area that has seen a similar and rapid demographic shift is Old Town Aurora, once a center of blacks and lower income Korean immigrants, that is now increasingly Hispanic.

Perhaps not coincidentally, the Denver Post also announced the inauguration of a major overhaul of eleven Northeast Denver schools, a move that has been heralded as positive by some, while arousing extreme controversy, skepticism and complaints about insufficient community consultation from others. FWIW, I haven't followed the overhaul efforts closely and don't have a strong opinion on their merits as a result.

Aurora, also perhaps not coincidentally, has also recently announced a major urban effort directed at the area between Stapleton and Old Town Aurora, although it has been overshadowed by a bid by Aurora to develop a complex that would compete heavily with the convention center complex in downtown Denver.

Not to put to fine a point on it, but, in each case, major governmental initiatives to improve city services in metro Denver neighborhoods have coincided with declining African American populations in those neighborhoods.

Certainly, nothing as crude as Jim Crow racism as it work in Denver, that just elected a second African-American mayor despite having a fairly modest African-American population percentage for a major American central city (Hancock this time around, Webb the last time around), or in Colorado, which recently had an African-American state house speaker (Terrance Carroll). Nor does metro Denver as a whole want for predominantly Hispanic neighborhoods that have been sorely neglected in the government services department. The cause and effect relationships here are more subtle and are not simple examples of racial or ethnic favoritism.

Northeast Denver, for example, has changed due to efforts like the Ballpark Neighborhood gentrification, the transformation of "North Capital Hill" into "Uptown" and the impact of the Stapleton and Lowry developments which sent middle class traffic through these formerly low income predominantly black neighborhoods and called attention to their potential to provide short commutes to downtown.

The housing bubble opened up a lot of affordable, quality suburban homes to people from Denver including families in Northeast Denver that have not been tainted by generations of covert and overt racial discrimination in the housing market that reached a critical mass that became self-sustaining where it has established itself.

Rising real estate values in Denver from a bubble collapsed low point in 1983 until an earlier than the rest of the nation slump, particularly in central Denver, transferred considerable wealth to inner city home owners.

As post from The Atlantic article that led me to the teen crime story that I quoted observed, underclass predominantly black dysfunctional ghettos are nothing to be nostalgic for, even if one is firmly committed to improving the well being of the people who lived in those communities a few decades ago and their children. The transformation of these dysfunctional neighborhoods wasn't a punishment inflicted on its residents; it was a reflection of the fact that the people who lived there have mostly found better alternatives and moved on when barriers to their exit from those neighborhoods became less steep. The neighborhoods weren't bad because they were non-white, they were bad because they had high crime, high truancy, governmental underinvestment, high teen pregnancy, few viable businesses, and high unemployment that had deep and obvious causes in American history.

Improving neighborhood well being makes neighborhoods tolerable to people who have any choice at all about where they live and has led to rapid population growth in these neighborhoods. Creating demand for housing in these neighborhoods boosts property values and makes life more tolerable for those who continue to live there. Even renters who are forced to leave due to rising rents in these neighborhoods spur the construction of newer and better rental housing in the metro area that if often better than what they left behind. The line between someone who is a slum lord who has received a windfall from the changes in these neighborhoods and someone who is a civic minded booster of a neighborhood is often a thin one.

Capitalism may not always seek out hard case situations to invest in for the long run, but it doesn't follow that it profits from large scale systemic socio-economic misery either. It encourages profitable mutual growth, it just sometimes has a hard time getting the ball rolling because not enough people have enough vision to bring the needed investment and suspicion abounds because it is hard to tell who gains and loses from the changes in advance. But, when your current neighborhood is one of the least desirable in the metro area, as was the case for a significant share of Northeast Denver in the 1980s and into the 1990s, it is hard for change, either to the neighborhood or for those who end up leaving the neighborhood as a result, to be a terrible thing or a case of downward mobility.



READ MORE - Why didn't the predicted surge in teen crime happen?

Selasa, 09 Agustus 2011

Lithuania Has Paramilitary Parking Enforcement

If you think that the Denver Boot is the cutting edge in tough on crime parking enforcement, you've obviously not been to Vilnius, Lithuania lately, where the mayor has taken to running over illegally parked cars with an armored personnel carrier.

Obvious, this is a highly wasteful and destructive approach to parking enforcement.  In contrast, here in Denver our last Mayor made a name for himself with merciful random act of kindness meter feeding to thwart parking enforcement, rather than paramilitary tactics, and the city council recently voted to relax a citizen adopted car impoundment ordinance.

But, when in Vilnius, stay out of the bike lane.

(It's actually a hoax, and is really is an add for a Swedish radio show, which makes it merely a safely entertaining pipe dream.)
READ MORE - Lithuania Has Paramilitary Parking Enforcement

Rabu, 27 Juli 2011

Property Rights In Water Working In Colorado

Colorado Public Radio, today, has an interesting story on the phenomena of "buy and dry" in the state, in which farmers sell their water rights (often for millions of dollars from farms that are marginally productive agriculturally and have no clear successors to farm them) to municipal water systems that need to water to support expanding urban populations.

The practice has virtually ended farming in some rural counties. Initially, there was a concern that simply cutting off water without considering the environmental impact of doing so would lead to swaths of infertile dirts that were a blight on the state and cause rapid economic collapse without warning in rural communities. More recent legislation in Colorado has mandated that the buyers of water rights in buy and dry transactions must establish and fund a thirty year mitigation plan that returns the previously farmed land to a state where it is a sustainable prairie and provides payments in lieu of taxes to the impacted governmental units to reflect the revenue losses that they experience as a result of the lost agricultural economic activity.

On balance, it is an example of property rights, accompanied by reasonable government regulation, protecting the legitimate interests of all involved while putting our arid state's scarce water resources to their highest and best uses.
READ MORE - Property Rights In Water Working In Colorado

Selasa, 05 Juli 2011

Post-Long Weekend Observations

* Denver's Mayor-Elect Hancock will be sworn in on the 18th of July. Bill Vidal, the outgoing interim Mayor has done a better than expected job in the interim since outgoing Mayor Hickenlooper took the Governor's office, in terms of the budget and police discipline. He's benefited from not owing anything to anyone and not having to run for re-election.
* Byers School, which has sat vacant since the Denver School of the Arts left for the old University of Denver music campus near Stapleton has a new tenant lined up, a new Denver School of Science and Technology charter school set to open, if I understand the matter correctly, in the 2013-2014 school year. This fills a huge hole in the West Washington Park neighborhood with a wonderful bit of infill, adds a good new educational choice to the Denver Public Schools, and makes a large number of people, my family included, who lobbied for it happy.
* My Fourth of July weekend found me at the Renaissance Festival in Larkspur, Colorado. A certain number of paid models and Renaissance Festival enthusiasts dress in costume - not strictly of any one historical period and often veering into fantasy. Among the most striking, because they come across as quite natural at first glance, were the little devil horns that some people wore, and the furry tails that a number of people (mostly women) affixed to their outfit as if they were natural. Also eye catching in general are other forms of headgear like garlands and fairy antenna, full back angel wing tattoos, and crows masks which are surprisingly frightening.  Genuine wings of angelic, fairy, and birdlike varieties were also in evidence, but rather less effective.  Opponents of weapons control will note that there are few other events where so many people openly bear arms (some fake, but a significant number of the genuine stainless steel and deadly variety).

* The Greeley Stampede, which I also made my way to this weekend, was more notable for the very strong presence of the National Guard, a lot of cliche Western Art, fried twinkies, alligator wrestling, and mutton busting.

* Aurora, Colorado is proposing major tax breaks and zoning accomodations for a Gaylord entertainment sponsored convention center project that, IMHO, is the last thing that the metro area needs right now.

* I don't recall if I mentioned the major new water compact reached this spring under Governor Hickenloopers guidance.  It diverts water from the Western Slope to the Front Range in exchange for giving the Western Slope more control of future diversion plans and other compensation.  The diversion plans include new hydropower for the state.

* Disney already has a radio station, a television station, multiple international destination amusement parks, a movie studio and a major line of characters.  How long will it be before they have a newspaper and sports leagues as well?
READ MORE - Post-Long Weekend Observations

Jumat, 03 Juni 2011

Denver's Municipal Election Round Two

Ballots must be received in Denver's runoff election on Tuesday. Today is that last day the a mailed in ballot has a reasonable chance of arriving; delivering a ballot to a designed drop off (the instructions in your ballot have locations and hours of operation) is a better bet after today.

The Mayoral Race

The marquee race for mayor is between Chris Romer and Michael Hancock. I made a choice and voted, but honestly, I am as ambivalent as I've ever been in an election. I'm not alone in this; Vincent Carroll at the Denver Post wrote a column saying the same thing.

Polling shows Hancock with the lead, although not an insurmountable one, despite the fact that Romer had the most votes at the end of the first round.  Voting in the Mayor's race once again closely followed ethnic lines in the first round, with predominantly Hispanic neighborhoods favoring Meija, predominantly black neighborhoods voting for Hancock, and white neighborhoods voting for Romer.  Most of the leaders in the Hispanic community have backed Romer in the runoff following the lead of Meija, but many of the runner up white candidates in the Mayoral race have backed Hancock.

Both are Democrats. Neither was my first choice. Both have political experience. Romer has a background as na investment banker who specialized in municipal bonds and focused a fair amount on out of the box solutions to the state's problems, particularly transportation, while in office in the Colorado General Assembly representing parts of the city including Congress Park. Hancock is our outgoing city council President with strong ties to the community. Neither have experience of CEO of an organization in any way resembling the City and County of Denver in either size or character. Romer has stronger ties to big business and has been the preferred candidate of big Denver names in the Republican party, and his father was a decidedly moderate Democrat while he served as Governor of Colorado. Hancock's natural instincts are to consider the impact of policy on the little guy, but he lacks the connection's to the city, state and national power elites that can help make things happen that Romer has at his disposal.

Romer has waffled on his stand on medical marijuana. Hancock has attacked Romer for taking big donations from strip clubs, equivocated on teaching evolution and is lukewarm about the right to choose. It is hard to tell how this will play out as the City develops policies for dealing with legal and illegal vices. Neither man seems to have an unwavering commitment to the sensible cost conscious, treatment oriented criminal justice and corrections administration reforms that Doug Linkhart has quietly but relentless secured in his tenure on the City Council.

Romer has promised to cut down on land use and licensing red tape, a legitimate issue that Hickenlooper also put on his agenda but never managed to pull off. Hancock seems inclined to refocus city attention on neighborhood level projects rather than big ticket centralized projects that most of his predecessors have focused upon.  But Hancock has less of a business orientation, for example, fumbling his handling of a situation involving the regulation of the city's taxi market in a way that seemed to help keep a new competitor out of the market for no legitimate reason. Hancock had personal involvement in developing the city's new zoning code (which is substantively probably worse than the hodgepodge that came before it despite being statutorily much more clean) and may feel a stronger stake in defending it whether or not it makes sense in a particular case out of respect for the process that created it, than Romer who has far less participation in that process.

Hancock's political style is more consultative, and community involvement is a natural instinct for him, but perhaps as a result, has few signature innovations as feathers in his cap despite the power he held in city council and he offered no substantive reforms other than greater community contract when asked by Colorado Public Radio how the city would look different after a year in his administration. Romer is better at avoiding falling into group think with independent ideas, but while this may show leadership, it also isn't unusual for his proposals to face opposition because he hasn't won sufficient support behind the scenes with all of the players involved before announcing them. He poses a greater risk of embarking on big new ideas that fall entirely flat. Neither man has the game changing capacity to walking into a room and suddenly secure seemingly impossible compromises that our state's most effective politicians, like John Hickenlooper and Andrew Romanoff, share (most recently seen in Hickenlooper's successful legislative battle to secure passage of the bill approving the state's regulations, despite a squabble over pay day lending regulation that he got state house Republicans to give up upon).

Both men acknowledge that need to continue and improve upon the efforts of Mayor Hickenlooper and acting mayor Bill Vidal to be more effective in disciplining bad cops and both have promised to remove a key figure in that process who has been roundly criticized - although under Vidal's administration public discipline has been stepped up; but it is hard to tell who would be more effective at securing that result. The fact that Romer was endorsed by the Fraternal Order of Police and that Hancock has closer political ties to communities that have been on the receiving end of police misconduct tend to tip the balance towards Hancock in my mind on this very important issue.

Romer's personal life has been unnotable. Hancock's personal life has been messier, for example, he didn't publicly acknowledge an out of wedlock child born two years before he married his current wife who is the mother of his two younger children until around the time he started contemplating his current run for office (thereby heading of the potential scandal of a child appearing out of the woodwork), but not in any way that obviously impairs his ability to serve the city as Mayor.

I could have probably dug deeper and found out more about the candidates before I voted and relied to some extent on a variety of endorsement cues and gut feelings rather than taking the time to really gather all the information I needed to make an optimal decision in what is a close call when lots and lots of information is available. But, I didn't have the time and both men are competent enough that I have considerable hope for Denver's future no matter who gets elected.

Also, notably, while some people have grumbled about negative campaigning in the Mayoral race, I'm not one of them. Honestly, I wish there had been more of it. A flawed Mayor can do a great deal of damage, while the difference between what a pretty good Mayor and a blandly competent one can do for the city is pretty marginal. (Neither runoff candidate is out of the park excellent this time around.) If a candidate has a serious flaw, or even does something that might provide a hint that there is a real probability that the candidate has a serious flaw even if it doesn't squarely prove that, I really, really want to know that as a voter. Civility has its place in politics, and untruthful negative advertisements do detract from the process, but truthful negative advertisements are vital to helping voters make good decisions.

The Race To Be Clerk and Recorder

I also looked into the runoff Clerk and Recorder's race again before voting in that race between McCarthy, my neighborhood whom I should have known better when I first posted about the race who had a much better campaign than I had given her credit for having, and Debra Johnson, Aurora's city clerk. The really good news is that two other candidates for the office, whom I sounded criticized in a blog post prior to the first round were defeated (in one case by a margin smaller than the number of people who had read that blog post).

Again, I didn't have as much time to scour the scarce information about that race as I would have liked, and despite having personally spoken at some length with McCarthy and heard interviews with Johnson on the radio, I ultimately drew a blank on the issues that mattered most to me: "what agenda does each woman have to make changes in the office on day one?", and "who is more likely to make the right decisions on close election administration decisions?" Neither woman articulated much of an agenda or really answered the question of what problems they would solve when in office. Both seemed to manage to avoid giving answers on election administration questions in the statements I heard from them and the materials I reviewed that shed much light on how they would handle those issues differently from their competitor.

I ultimately voted for McCarthy, because she seems to have more political sense and more of a sense that she is entitled to use the authority of the office to the fullest, despite the fact that Johnson's experience is more directly relevant and that Johnson seems to have some sensible detail oriented ideas for improving the apolitical aspects of the office's operations. But, as in the Mayor's race, I didn't have a strong preference for either candidate and was voting as much as anything on gut feeling at a time when I felt that I didn't have the time or energy to get enough information to be comfortable that I'd chosen the person most likely to have the right instincts in close cases and to be the most effective manager of the office administratively (for managerial competence can frequently be as important as policy preferences and attitudes in this kind of post).  This was a very close decision.

The Big Picture

There are a few second round city council district races as well, but I have completely ignored them for the selfish reason that those are choices that I am not required to make myself.  The key point is that the first round of the race eliminated essentially all of the bad possiblities and have given voters time to take a closer look with more information available at the two candidates that remain in each of those races.

Four days from now, electoral municipal politics in Denver will be over for another four years and we will have a new team of leaders who have the ability to fix our city's problems and to help up realize its possibilities if they rise to that challenge, no matter who wins. Denver has been blessed by more than two decades of really outstanding mayors and strong municipal leadership on city council and in its other elected offices, that has allowed it to weather the financial crisis better than many peer cities, and to have a lot of neighborhoods that are vibrant and growing after starting from a pretty miserable place in the early 1980s, despite the fact that it is effectively landlocked. I sincerely hope that our next crew of municipal leaders, who have very big shoes to fill, will manage to continue this proud tradition.
READ MORE - Denver's Municipal Election Round Two

Selasa, 03 Mei 2011

Westminster Mall Slated For Major Infill Development

Following the successful examples of redevelopments the moribund Cinderella City mall in Englewood, the Villa Italia mall in Lakewood (now Belmar), and the Southglenn Mall (now "the Streets at SouthGlenn, a 70-acre outdoor shopping, entertainment and residential area"), the City of Westminster, a Denver, Colorado suburb, has acquired most of the property in the dying 108 acre Westminster Mall ("all but the Sears store, the Brunswick Zone and a small office building, all of which will remain open. The city also plans to keep the J.C. Penney store open.") near U.S. 36 and Sheridan Boulevard, which it plans to redevelop as a municipal downtown with "5 million square feet of offices, residences, restaurants and shops."

Westminster Mall opened in 1977 with 30 stores. Within 10 years, it became among the most popular malls in metro Denver, adding May D&F and Mervyn's in 1986, followed by J.C. Penney a year later. At its peak, the mall had about 300 stores, a far cry from the 15 that remain open today. The city and the current owner invested $10 million to renovate the mall in 2000-01.

These suburbs were frequently developed in the wake of the construction of the interstate highway system as bedroom community subdivisions, rather than as traditional municipalities with a central commercial and government downtown district, usually had strictly segregated residential and commercial zones, and saw little downside to sprawling parking lots that were distant from individual shops in retail district, a set of flaws that has left these communities without souls or character that left them vulnerable to New Urbanist land use approaches.

The transition has also been inspired by ongoing Red Queen hypothesis style conflicts between municipalities for a stronger tax base. 


The Gallagher Amendment, passed by voters in 1982 in Colorado and phased in over the next several years causes residential real estate to be taxed at a lower percentage of its value than non-residential real estate. Also, for a variety of reasons, many municipalities have tended to favor sales taxes over property taxes as a revenue source. This means that communities with predominantly residential real estate tax bases and little retail development must impose much higher property taxes to pay for the same municipal services as communities with substantial commercial, and in particular, retail development. The combination of higher property taxes and inferior municipal services, in turn, drives down housing values in these communities creating a vicious circle. Cities with office building developments can turn to head taxes and, at least, benefit from larger property tax bases, but the bedroom communities planned in the late 1950s, 1960s, 1970s and early 1980s have suffered in this local taxation environment.

Retail development, in contrast, through a combination of its non-residential property tax rates and the sales tax revenue that it generates typically raise far more in local taxes than the cost of the governmental services that they consume (and draw significant volumes of tax dollars from non-residents), subsidizing municipal services for residents of the municipality and making housing in those municipalities more attractive.

So, there is a strong incentive for local governments in Colorado to do everything possible in a never ending struggle to lure retail developments with robust sales from their neighbors, even if this creates excess retail capacity in the aggregate that leaves a suburban landscape littered with dead shopping malls that have failed to keep up with the competition. For example, in the case of the Westminster Mall, the City and County of Broomfield's new Flatiron Crossing Mall and thriving retail development in Boulder sucked much of the remaining life out of the older Westminister Mall.

Mixed use mall to downtown redevelopments try to mute the competition by not focusing so intensely on destination retail shops that can be picked away easily by new retail developments.  Instead, they favor of residential uses and governmental uses that are sure to stay put, and location sensitive retail options that are more likely to continue to be supported by local residents even if a new destination retail mall springs up. These developments also bet that the steady stream of traffic from residential and commercial and governmental users who are relatively wed to the location will make the area attractive to other retail uses on an ongoing basis.


These redevelopments try to boost the brand of the suburb's housing stock (and hence property values) by giving the municipality more of an identity, a more positive character and more definition.

This development joins a major new development planned for the Chatfield Reservoir area, the redevelopment of the old University Hospital complex on Colorado Boulevard, and a number of transit oriented developments along light rail lines that are heating up as the real estate industry in Denver starts to recover from the financial crisis. Insiders in the industry that I've spoken to discount these major projects as mere "dreams" until more concrete steps to implement them progress, but the planning for a wave of new real estate development in the Denver metropolitan area, much of it infill, is underway.
READ MORE - Westminster Mall Slated For Major Infill Development

Senin, 25 April 2011

Denver Businesses and Real Estate Holes Come Back To Life

For any urban area, real estate development and utilization is central to a community's health. Denver's metropolitan area, which took a relatively light blow during the financial crisis and housing bubble collapse, seems to be bouncing back with new businesses and developments filling gaps left by businesses that the downtown purged.

* A major infill development from Alameda to the I-25 and Broadway light rail station which would include 3,000 new homes, a new school, and new office space is in the advanced planning stage. Currently it includes the Denver Design Center which is a suite of interior design oriented retail spaces, a Sam's Club, an Albertsons, two light rail station, a K-Mart, and some strip mall development.

* The Gates Rubber Plant to the south of the planned new development has been the major projects focus for the area at the fringe of Denver's West Washington Park neighborhood, some office space was restored on the east side of Broadway, and a new apartment complex went in at the southern tip of the project, but environmental concerns and a financial crisis spawned collapse of investment in major new real estate projects has put it on hold. But, if both the Gates Rubber Plant and the new transit oriented development planned between it and the Baker Neighborhood eventually take off, it will be a major transit oriented population expansion in Central Denver.

* Another small transit oriented development, with senior housing and retail is going in at the I-25 and Yale light rail stop.

* National Jewish Hospital has finally decided to buy the long vacant Gove Middle School at Colorado Boulevard and 14th Street, that is adjacent to its campus, allowing it to consolidate its expanding operations, and providing capital projects cash for a cash strapped Denver Public Schools.

* The former University Hospital on University Boulevard was to have been redeveloped by a developer who managed to rezone the property but gave up on the project. The new infill developer on the project has more modest ambitions, but looks likely to be able to put this major hole in the neighborhood back into productive use. A new apartment complex and new restaurants have kept that neighborhood surprisingly healthy considering the massive loss of employment that it has experienced.

* A shakeup is looming in the area of Saint Joseph's and Presbyterian/Saint Luke's Hospital in North Denver. P/SL has recently upgraded its ER and added a children's focused facility to fill the gap created by the departure of Children's Hospital to Fitzsimmons. Saint Joseph's signature tower has serious building code issues, so a somewhat complicated plan involving major new construction is underway to deal with it.

* A string of vacant store fronts along Alameda Avenue in West Washington Park created by the pull out of Twist and Shout Records, a closing Blockbuster store, a failed used book store, a closed laundromat, a long dead gas station, a floundering dinner assembly business, and several other faltering small businesses is almost entirely back to life. Two bars at Alameda and Downing have come under new management replacing the old ones. A hair salon has expanded to fill the space left vacant by the loss of a small neighborhood gym. A tailor and a new dry cleaner moved in, while a space once held by a travel agent struggling with declining commissions has been filled by a home nursing service. Pho Pasta took over the used book store space, Bittersweet have turned the old gas station into a beautiful new fine restaurant, Italian restaurant La Scalia filled the space previously occupied by a Dinner assembly business and the adjacent Chinese restaurant has taken the opportunity to give itself an upscale face life. A high end appliance store filled one gap. A Jimmy Johns, a hair salon, a new small gym, and a Larkburger have filled the gap created by the move of Twist and Shout records to Colfax near East High School. A new bar will fill the gap created by a closing Blockbuster. Further down the road, medical marijuana dispensaries have filled several street front locations zoned for retail.

* Also nearby the Wask Perk coffee shop at Emerson and Ohio in West Washington Park has expanded, both taking over the space of its retail neighbor which was most recent a struggling gift shop and starting to offer a mobile bicycle like station in Washington Park itself. The establishment seems to be thriving, after struggling through at least three successive rounds of owners, clashing with the local neighborhood association, and facing traffic declines due to road work. Nearby a new bare bones retro style barber shop has moved in, next to a pet grooming business.

* The new Central Denver Recreation Center that had been planned for a parcel near East High School that had once been a grocery store and then was a church, on land purchased for a pretty penny (arguably suspiciously high), has been put on hold in favor of what I call the million dollar dog park. The dog park meets the urban planning goal of turning what had once been a popular gathering place for vagrants and youths with nothing to do into a space securely held by middle class dog owners, but has not filled the hole in community services that exists in the neighborhood.

* One major question mark that may be resolved in the next few days or weeks is the fate of the old Byers School. It was the home of the Denver School of the Arts until that relocated to the former DU Music School near Stapleton, and has sat vacant since then. Its school yard was redeveloped into a complex of what I call cereal box houses. They are small, narrow houses that look like half duplexes but have space between them because the neighborhood association (WWPNA) insisted that they be single family dwellings rather than town houses or duplexes (a preference that still baffles me). Neighbors, myself included, are pushing to have the location serve as the home for a new campus of the Denver School of Science and Technology, the most successful of Denver's charter schools. Success would mean another major hole in the neighborhood filled, an attractive new educational option nearby, and relief for the Denver Public Schools from the fiscal strain of carrying valuable empty real estate without getting any benefit from it. Failure would probably lead to increased efforts to dispose of the property, but this wouldn't be easy as it has few alternative uses that wouldn't take lots of ambition and capital investments.

* Downtown, a space filled by the failed Niketown store on the 16th Street Mall is slated to become the new home of discount fashion department store H&M. Considerable rumor had gathered suggesting that it would replace the departing Saks Department store in the Cherry Creek mall, but that apparently, will not be happening. A new tenant there has not been announced.

* The Commons Park, South Platte, Highland area to the west of LoDo is thriving.

* West Colfax will soon lose Saint Anthony's Hospital to the suburbs, a major hole in a neighborhood that has not seen the redevelopment and infill activity of many other Denver neighborhoods.

* Construction seems to be picking up again in Stapleton. It also has a new beautiful church opening in a signature concrete arch building, a new modern architecture inspired new recreation center, and new schools. Much of this is development funded.

* The new, reasonably affordable, suburban style Gateway neighborhood on the road to DIA in Denver proper, just opened a new library and is also getting new schools.

* Aurora, in a urban planning department lead initiative, is looking for a way to open the doors to a major infill redevelopment of the area between Fitzsimmons and Stapleton, which is currently a working class residential neighborhood that has seen major upheaval as many black and moderate income Asian residents have moved to more suburban neighborhood's like Denver's Green Valley Ranch and the E-470 corridor, and many new Hispanic residents have moved in, given the "Old Town Aurora" neighborhood a new ethnic character. They would like to expand the middle to high income neighborhoods created by the redevelopments of Lowry and Stapleton and Fitzsimmons to link them all into a coherent larger scale zone of prosperity. But, it is unclear is the private sector interest to make it happen in present.

* A major new development that will bring thousands of new residents is planned for Douglas County near Chatfield Reservoir at densities within the levels allowed by current zoning, but the supposedly pro-growth, anti-government regulation Republicans of the area are balking at the new project.

* Meanwhile, facing renewed budget cuts, the Denver Public Library system is pushing to form its own property tax funded district, apart from the municipal government's general fund from which it is funded now, to stave off those cuts and provide it with greater budget security. Hickenlooper's administration managed to stave off deep cuts to the system, compared to many library systems such as the decimated Aurora Public Library system, but the fear that another recession could inflict deep permanent damage to the system lingers.

* Despite funding shortfalls that leave the prospects of a timely completion of Northern expansions of Denver's light rail and transit system in doubt, as it isn't clear what sort of sales tax increase voters would support to fund it, the FasTracks line from central Denver to the Jefferson County court house is coming ever closer to entering service and the Union Station redevelopment is moving along. Most of the new light rail bridges for the line are in place.

* Next in line for rail transit expansion will be the efforts already underway to connect downtown Denver and the Denver International Airport, a line that might also connect Stapleton to DIA via rail.

* The Greyhound bus station downtown is closing, and the very obvious optimal place for it to relocate would be Union Station, which is supposed to be a multi-modal transit hub for downtown. But, it isn't clear that this will happen.
READ MORE - Denver Businesses and Real Estate Holes Come Back To Life

Kamis, 10 Maret 2011

Traditional Family Not So Traditional

What did the family look like in the hunter-gatherer days that account for 95% of human history?

Suffice it to say that it wouldn't be a good fit to many urban zoning codes that insist upon single family dwellings.

Because humans lived as foragers for 95% of our species’ history, we analyzed co-residence patterns among 32 present-day foraging societies (total n = 5067 individuals, mean experienced band size = 28.2 adults). We found that hunter-gatherers display a unique social structure where (i) either sex may disperse or remain in their natal group, (ii) adult brothers and sisters often co-reside, and (iii) most individuals in residential groups are genetically unrelated. These patterns produce large interaction networks of unrelated adults and suggest that inclusive fitness cannot explain extensive cooperation in hunter-gatherer bands.
READ MORE - Traditional Family Not So Traditional

Selasa, 01 Maret 2011

The Downside To Wash Park

For all my beloved Washington Park's virtues, we have at least one notable drawback. It seems that it, as well as nearby University Park, has a reputation for having for the worst At&T network cell phone coverage in the entire city of Denver, Colorado (truth be told, the digital television signal reception is pretty mediocre as well).

It so happens that there have been a somewhat fierce but obscure series of land use squabbles over the matter of building a new tower to address this shortfall (and related but more serious dead zones for EMS radios in the area), but apparently tech reporters at the Denver Post like Andy Vuong, don't talk much to the city beat reporters who cover such matters, or the paper may lack institutional memory - if it isn't readily discoverable via Google, it doesn't exist.
READ MORE - The Downside To Wash Park

Jumat, 28 Januari 2011

Friday Fragments

A few scattered half ideas for a beautiful Friday morning:

* It is highly annoying that perfectly good cell phones can't be switched from one mobile carrier to another, even though both carriers offer the essentially the same phone made by the same manufacturer to customers. Cell phone portability would be a great cause for the Fair Trade Commission, which is charged with regulating anti-competitive conduct by businesses, or the FCC, which regulates telecommunications.

* It would also be interesting to have consumer finance regulations that required cell phone, cable TV and satellite TV contracts that include phones or equipment to break out the service provision, telephone purchase, and finance charge components separately, to require that the finance charge component comply with generally applicable consumer finance laws, and for the FCC or FTC to then limit cancellation fees to the unpaid principal balance for the telephone purchase plus some statutorily limited amount for cancellation of the service contract. Landline phone companies and casualty insurance companies somehow manage in a regime where cancellation charges aren't permitted at all - surely phone companies could do something similar - indeed, loyalty discounts for long term customers at cell phone providers that don't have long term contracts and casualty insurance companies achieve a similar objective.

* Some area convenience stores have petitions in favor of allowing them to sell beer stronger than 3.2 beer. I'm all for it.

* Walker Stapleton's moonlighting job pays more than his job as state treasurer, although it doesn't appear to pose nearly as much of a conflict of interest. I'd personally favor a bill to prohibit all compensated moonlighting for "full time" state and local elected officials in the state accompanied by a substantial increase in pay for those officials. We shouldn't have to worry about any public officials being influenced by an outside source of income.

* I'd also favor a bill to make the Colorado General Assembly officially full time, to have it in session all year rather than 120 days, and provide each state legislator with 3 FTE of staff, while prohibiting all compensated moonlighting for them. Term limits play a much larger role in keeping the Colorado General Assembly a "citizen legislature" than its "part-time" status, and practically speaking, it is a full time job during the legislative session and at least a half time job outside the legislative session anyway due to interim committees, constituent service, and time spent crafting bills for the next session. The compressed session seriously compromises the ability of the general public to monitor what the state legislature is doing, to comment on bills, and to participate in legislative hearings. The lack of legislative staff is one of the main factors that gives lobbyists more power. The low pay for the legislature makes almost every state legislator beholden to a private employer or private clients for their livelihood while addressing the state's business and makes legislators more succeptible to influence from petty niceties from lobbyists that aren't prohibited by the state's gift ban.

* House Republicans want to end the Presidential public campaign financing law that costs about $600 million a year and is authorized by tax return checkoffs that are down about 75% from their peak. I have to agree. While I think that public financing is a much better way to deal with corruption in campaign finance than the existing regulatory regime, this particular version of campaign finance is delivering very little value and isn't so essential that it can't be cut. The decline in tax return checkoffs also show that it is has lost public support.

* RTD is considering asking for a 0.2 percent sales tax hike to help pay for overbudget FasTracks, a move that would bridge the gap but still require delays in finishing the project. Area majors have pushed for a 0.3 to 0.4 percent sales tax hike instead to get the project done sooner. Some of the hike would be compensated for by the expiration of an existing sales tax hike for other purposes (the stadium, I think). I believe that RTD has the better argument, as I don't think that voters have the stomach for a larger tax increase. Area mayors would be better off using their local government budgets to speed up construction in their areas than increasing sales taxes even more.

* It would be interesting to look at which countries have the best land use results and then to see what kind of land use regulation approaches they use.

*
A new democracy barometer from the University of Zurich and the Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB) shows the development of the thirty best democracies in the world. Denmark, Finland and Belgium have the highest quality of democracy, whereas Great Britain, France, Poland, South Africa and Costa Rica the lowest.


Hello! What are these people smoking? Belgium is on the verge of disintegrating into two nations because its regions are utterly incapable of finding common cause. Deep distrust and lack of communications between the regions has reached the point where fake news stories about the other regions are taken seriously. It went months without a government because Walloons and Flemish parties couldn't agree on a governing coalition. Belgium is a basket case of democracy that is at the top of the list of countries where democracy is not working well

Right behind Belgium on the list, in fourth place, was Iceland whose national government just went bankrupt. Again, what were they thinking?

At the middle of the list, are Ireland at #15 and Spain at #17. Both have wildly unpopular regimes that are eliciting mass street protests and are fiscal basket cases that are en route to imposing unpopular austerity programs and are effectively as beholden to the bond markets as they are to their own people.

Great Britain, in contrast, ranked near the bottom of the list at #26, while it has its problems, seems to be getting along tolerably well and does not deserve such a low rating. It just successfully found a solution to a situation where no one party could command a majority in parliament with a palatable compromise. It is in the process of proposing electoral reforms to be more fair to third parties. It is tightening its fiscal belt in a manner far more sensible than either the austerity plans proposed by nations like Greece and Ireland that have been shoved down their throats by bondholders, or the ideologically driven cuts proposed by Tea Party Republicans in the United States. It has had its share of public discontent (particularly over increases in higher education charges) but has far less public discontent than many of the other countries on the list.

In short, the democracy index is profoundly and fundamentally flawed. Whatever it is measuring, it certainly isn't a sensible measure of democracy.

The press release from the source in German also provides link to a more detailed report. This explains that the index has three components: Freedom (individual liberty, rule of law, public sphere), Control (Competition, Mutual Constraints, Govern. Capability), and Equality (Transparency, Participation, Representation).

The basic problem is that it lets arbitrarily weighted components of democratic virtues overweigh things that are obvioius in the big picture, and focuses too much on process and too little on results.
READ MORE - Friday Fragments

Selasa, 25 Januari 2011

Population Density And Political Identity

The median Republican Congressional district now has a population density 11 times smaller than the median Democratic district[.]


From here.



Chart from here, which goes on to explain:

As shown in the chart above (in Log scale), there was a relatively strong positive correlation between density of congressional districts and the vote share of the Democratic candidate in the 2010 elections. Of densest quartile of districts with a race between a Democrat and a Republican — 105 of them, with a density of 1,935 people per square miles or more — the Democratic candidate won 89. Of the quartile of districts with the lowest densities — 98 people per square mile and below — Democratic candidates only won 23 races.


This is a pretty intense urban-rural divide. Shifts like those in Colorado which transferred rural Congressional Districts 3 and 4 from Blue Dog Democrats to Republicans no doubt made it more intense.

If you wanted to be more fine grained in your analysis, I also have no doubt that intraparty liberal-conservative divides would also show a meaningful connection to population density: moderate Republicans probably tend to be from more urban districts, while conservative Democrats probably tend to be from more rural districts.

I also suspect that further analysis would show that if you were took take more fine grained data, for example, census tracts, that average population density in a district would match the partisan split even more strongly. In other words, it is possible to have a large Congressional district in which most of the voters live in a densely populated central city or two, and a minority of voters live in outlying areas around the cities that house most of the people in the district. My expectation is that geographically large Congressional Districts in which most voters are crammed into central cities but there are large, barely populated outlying areas are more liberal than geographically large Congressional Districts with a steady low level of population densities (e.g. districts that have only small towns, rural areas and exurbs).

There is a credible argument that population density is indeed one of the prime drivers of partisan identity - that living in an urban area causes Democratic policies to make more sense, while living in a rural area causes Republican policies to make more sense.

One way to test that would be to look at changes in political ideology upon moving from an area that has high population density to one that has low population density and visa versa. If an individual's politics get more conservative when he or she moves to the country, and more liberal when he or she moves to the city, then the case for population density causing political identity would be supported (although one could also argue for neighborhood effects that are independent of population density in that scenario).

It is possible to argue for causes other than population density for this divide. For example, one could argue that it is farming, rather than population density that drives it. But, this would fail to explain why exurbanites are more conservative than outer ring suburbanites who in turn are more conservative than inner ring suburbanites who are in turn more conservative than central city residents, none of whom are involved in the farm economy. A population density explanation can also explain why cities like Columbus, Ohio, which have a large land area for their population, are more conservative politically than more densely populated cities like Denver.

One important caveat is that I am not at all sure that this relationship holds in all U.S. regions. In the South, partisan divides based on race and religion may swamp most population density effects, while in the North, I suspect that racial and religious divides merely reinforce the population density effects. There are many rural blacks in the South and few in the North.
READ MORE - Population Density And Political Identity

Senin, 10 Januari 2011

Cities are more efficient

The bigger the city, the more output it produces per capita and the fewer resources it needs to do so.
READ MORE - Cities are more efficient

Kamis, 06 Januari 2011

Outsourcing The House

You probably don't have a cook, a butler, a live in maid, a stable boy, or a live in gardener. It isn't unlikely, however, sometimes pay someone to cook food for you and deliver it to your table, to mow your lawn, to clean your house, to plan your child's wedding, to press your shirts, or to maintain your car. The personal services industry employs many people, but today, those people are organized as independent contract small business people who provide the same service to many customers, rather than as household servants.

Suppose that you take that idea one step further. Suppose that in addition to outsourcing the work of people who work in your house, you outsource the house as well. We're already seeing this happen, and the trend is likely to continue.

Outsourcing the Workshop, Shed, Basement and Attic

One of the first instances of outsourcing household space was the safety deposit box which is a substitute for a household safe.

Many gun clubs offer safe storage of firearms intended for hunting or target shooting or as collector's items, away from your home, an increasingly relevant consideration in an area where many dorms and public housing don't permit them, and where prudence and state and local laws and ordinances require safe storage of firearms or impose liability for failure to safely store firearms. This obviously doesn't make sense for a firearm kept to defend one's home against intruders, but many firearms aren't intended for that purpose and many people have multiple firearms and don't need all of them to be in their home at once.

There is a whole industry that sells storage units to people who lack basements or sheds or attics or unused closets to hold their infrequently used stuff. These used to be limited to glorified garages (and many offer RV parking as well), but now there are climate controlled storage units and units specially designed to handle special contents like wine collections. Who hasn't seen one of the "PODS" parked in front of someone's house to be filled, taken away, and then retrieved (possible at a new and different house) later? What if there were a business that had mini-PODS that were tucked away with your out of season clothes that sent you a reminder card at a date you set when you thought you might want them again?

There are already several off site file storage companies, and "cloud computing" which stores data and computer program resources at some remote Internet accessible location is becoming commonplace, even for household users.

Down the road from my office is a place that rents workshops and studios for people who don't have their own.

Reading, Office Space and Study Space

Many new developments have community mailboxes rather than mailboxes attached to individual houses. One could imagine a neighborhood "reading room" that would be sort of a mini-library, with a full compliment of newspaper and magazine subscriptions, coffee and teapots, and a small stash of trashy reading - many campgrounds across the American West have that kind of space.

My own office, while fairly conventional, includes use of a break room, reception services, copying machines and scanners, fax machines, a lobby and conference rooms that are shared by the suite, and if I wanted to have a home office while not having real estate nice enough to meet with clients, I could arrange to have a "virtual office" with all of the services except the room devoted exclusive to me - those would be available on a reservation basis for a certain number of hours a month. Most virtual offices are oriented towards small businesses (and this also avoids some of the hassle of trying to take a home office deduction for tax purposes).

One can imagine a virtual office oriented towards students instead. More of more neighborhood library branches now have study rooms and community rooms where people might otherwise have gathered in a living room or large home office, that receive heavy use. University libraries have long had study carrels, but as studying and research become divorced from physical books, it wouldn't be too surprising to see a place that offered study carrel rentals by the semester together with a few hours a month of group study rooms time minus the library in the future. The neighborhood study rooms could have tutors on staff to help answer questions, actively encourage the formation of homework groups and writer's critique groups, have small stores that sold school supplies and snacks, and offered Internet access and affordable subscriptions to academic journal databases or virtual libraries. These kind of spaces might be particularly attractive to students in online high school or college programs, and to non-traditional students who need to get away from a chaos of a home full of children and all sorts of household activities and attention demands. Perhaps these kinds of centers could be natural outgrowths of branch college campuses, community colleges, or franchised tutoring businesses.

Entertaining

The outsourcing of the guest room and entertaining areas has probably not yet run its course.

Once upon a time, birthday party's at home were very common; now there is a whole industry built on creating usually indoor "play spaces" for children's parties complete with separate rooms for eating cake and opening presents on one hand, and racing around having fun on the other.

Coffee shops and bars aren't just places where you buy coffee and beer, they are to a great extent outsourced parlors and living rooms.

Many restaurants offer private rooms for meal gatherings.

While there have been hotels where out of town guests can be housed, and where one can rent rooms for events, this really hasn't penetrated the "house outsourcing" market yet. When I was in law school, a lived for a year in the law school dormitories called the "law club." This had, in addition to a sharing dining area, a mail room, and a shared recreation area, a suite of guest rooms where visiting friends and family could stay. This would be a natural addition to a subdivision of not so big houses, alleviating the anxiety of people who feel the need to own a house based on their peak need, rather than their usual need. For example, a senior citizen's development might be much more attractive if residents knew there were places in the complex where their children and grandchildren could stay on holiday visits. In existing neighborhoods, converting an existing property into a guest house or bed and breakfast for out of town family and household guests might offer more intimacy and walkable access to your host's home than sending guests off to a Holiday Inn or Motel 6, and thus be a more socially acceptable option for space constrained families. In fact, a number of new high rise developments combine condominiums and hotel rooms in the same building.

There is also a small but growing niche of places where one can entertain guests and hold parties that are separate from full fledged hotels oriented towards business conferences and large weddings where many guests are staying overnight, particularly as fewer people have natural and easy access to church halls, civic club halls and country clubs. Some condo complexes and apartment buildings in Denver have them. Since one of the factors that often drive people to purchase large houses is the desire to be able to hold large parties a few times a year, the availability of respectable entertaining venues, perhaps as part of a homeowner's association, perhaps as part of a "virtual office" or "time share" style subscription service, or perhaps through simple rentals, might make it more palatable for people who want to hold occasional big parties to live in smaller houses.

A Japanese style innovation that we might see is some variation on the rented karaoke room. While many American cities have karakoke bars where you can belt out your favorite tune in front of a large room full of strangers, fewer have private rooms where you and a half dozen of your friends can do that in greater privacy. And, similar sized entertainment rooms, outfitted a deluxe home theaters or multi-player deluxe videogaming rooms (with media rentals included and concession service available), for example, might also be hits.

The Yard, Workshop and Garden

Next to my children's school is a community garden where people with little or no lawn of their own can grow vegetables or flowers in a little plot down the road.

The "patio home" concept where single family homes share a communal front yard tended by a homeowner's association is also increasingly common. Some resort communities have private parks and beaches to provide residents with the benefits of a place to throw the kind of parties that one would ordinarily throw in your back yard in a single family house with a beach without the expense and waste of having one for every property when most go unused most of the time. The concept of urban residential neighborhoods like my own Washington Park is that each homeowner has a tiny lot, but in exchange the neighborhood has a premier park that everyone shares.

Rather than having a home gym, people join neighborhood health clubs or go to neighborhood recreation centers (incidentally, some even have showers that you can use when you have plumbing problems). Many homeowner's associations and condominium complexes have small community pools and exercise rooms.

What about the dog house? Lots of people in urban areas live in places that don't permit pets, but have or want pets. There are kennels, of course, but those are expensive and a lot of the cost goes into staff to provide care for the pets while their owners are absent. What if there were a kennel-like structure with a nice dog park within a short walk from a no-dogs apartment complex? Dog lovers could keep their dog there, talk their dog on daily walks, feed their dog themselves, and perhaps the structure would even have little rooms a bit like library study rooms where you could relax, watch TV, read a book, or have a coffee in the company of your dog, before or after work. It wouldn't be the same as having your dog in your own home, but it would be the next best thing. Similar arrangements already exist for people who live in the city but want to have horses.

The Sick Rooms

It isn't uncommon for someone who lives in a house without a ground floor bedroom or bathroom to experience a short term injury or illness that limits their ability to move around the house. Perhaps a broken leg, perhaps simply being very weak for a while.

Sometimes, a stay at home parent needs to recover from surgery or being sick or is pregnant and on bedrest, and doesn't need any special caretakers or hospital equipment, but does need to be genuinely relieved from the temptation to do any household chores or childcare while resting and recovering.

Sometimes, someone learns that they have an infectious disease, TB for example, and needs to stay away from a vulnerable elderly person or infant or other person with a weak immune system. Perhaps a child visiting frail grandparents comes down with the measles on Christmas vacation.

These conditions may all be ones where family members and friends and perhaps daily or less frequent nurse visits are all that one needs as caretakers, but staying at home is not a great option, and a hospital stay would be absurdly expensive for such a minor condition. It would be a shorter term alternative to an assisted living facilty or senior housing complex.

There are motels near most hospitals with a multistate draw (e.g. Mayo Clinic and National Jewish) that cater to this medically needy customers, but few closer to home that market themselves and are designed to meet this need niche.

This might be a niche for short term recovery room suites, a bit likely weekly motels but with the immobile and ill who need rooms that are accessable and antisceptic on short notice in mind. There might be room service available and a referral service for "home nursing" services.

Of course, hospices and nursing homes have already been brought into use for high intensity need cases.

Sharing Toys and Tools

The idea of outsourcing things that you need infrequently to avoid having to buy things based on "peak use" has applications in households beyond the house as well. Lots of people buy boats, ATVs, RVs, motorcycles, pickup trucks, cars with more seating capacity than most families usually need, specialty tools, snowmobiles, and the like that they may only use a few days or weeks a year. But, those things take space to store, often need to be maintained every year even if you don't use them much, and spend a lot of time sitting idle. Rental options exist, but they can be pricey because they are extracting large profit margins from people who don't regularly use those items, are in a place where their plans demand that they have them, and have only a choice between buying or renting. Rental operations also have a fairly high risk that the items will be stolen or damaged, because the renters are engaged in one time transactions and have no emotional stake in taking care of the equipment.

But, what if you were part of a "recreational toys and household tools co-op" that provided members with use of these items at cost (be offering annual rebates if there were any profits, in proportion to patronage), had a substantial deposit and credit check up front to make individual transactions for members go more quickly, trusted members a little more so that they would need less paid employee or volunteer services, and turned the relationship between the firm renting the stuff and the person renting it into a longer term, more warm and fuzzy one (what they call in the literature the "warm glow"). What if the co-op had multiple locations and you could get what you needed at one location and drop it off at another?

Denver's bike rental program is an example of the concept in practice.

Limits To The Trend

We haven't, and probably never will, go as far as some societies in this direction.

For example, public baths, while common in some parts of the world and developed at a time when many homes lacked them, are unlikely to make a comeback. The public Laundromat while still in existence is also fading away with increasing affluence and the appearance of affordable laundry machines that both wash and dry clothes further reduces the space constraints involved.

Sex hotels and capsule hotels also seem unlikely to come to a place near you anytime soon. But, the house outsourcing trend surely isn't entirely played out either.
READ MORE - Outsourcing The House

Senin, 13 Desember 2010

How Will We Use Vacant Public Space?

Empty Public Space Abounds

Denver is littered with grand old churches that are empty or have Congregations of a few dozen in edifices built for many hundreds.

The Denver Public Schools has far more space in schools than it has students, a few neighborhoods have overcrowding (like Green Valley Ranch and Stapleton) while other neighborhoods have a particularly great excess of empty school space. My neighborhood has the old Beyer's School (once home to Denver School of the Arts which relocated to fill part of an abandoned North Campus of the Universty of Denver, the rest of which was filled with Johnson and Wales University) looming over it and fervantly seeks to make it the home of a new Denver School of Science and Technology Charter School.

As the volume of mail sent via the postal service declines in favor of e-mail, one by one, post offices are going to sit vacant. Budget cuts have left communities like Aurora and Colorado Springs, and even Denver, unwilling or unable to keep recreation centers open, leaving more public spaces vacant. As multiplexes replace humbler theaters, the old theaters have had to find new uses. Dead malls lurch quietly. And, the declining rolls of service clubs from the Masons to the Eagles chronicled most famously by Robert Putnam continue to dwindle, their lodges and halls sit underused or empty. Converting old public spaces into private ones is a growth industry.

Taken together there is a lot of empty public space.

New Uses

Sometimes, old churches and public spaces become lofts. S. Broadway has a church converted to lofts at about 1st Street, University Boulevard has another church converted to a residence at about 5th Street, 10th Street in Congress Park features an old fire station converted to residences. There is an old school converted to residences near Old South Gaylord in Washington Park. The home can be delightful, but it is also a shame to see public space become private.

The old late night post office and mail sorting facility in LoDo was replaced by a shiny new, eco-friendly EPA building. In my home town, Oxford, Ohio, an old post office became a municipal court.

Train stations are seeing a renaissance, ironically, as train stations, mostly supporting metro area transit rather than intercity rail, although rejections of federal high speed rail funds in Ohio and Wisconsin, and indifference towards them in New Jersey and Florida, makes Colorado's hopes of securing some of these funds look like less of a pipe dream. Denver's Union Station is already well in the process to be restored to glory as a transportation hub (even as the Greyhound Station looks for a new home).

The dead malls at Cinderella City (in Englewood, Colorado) and Villa Italia (in Lakewood, Colorado) were razed and replaced with mixed use neighborhoods, in the case of Cinderella City, complete with a new city hall and library.

Movie theaters have found mixed dispositions. Some, like the Esquire and Mayan have been subdivided into multiscreen art house theaters. One at S. Colorado Boulevard and Alameda in Glendale became a gym. One on S. Broadway was converted into a climbing gym. Several have been converted into venues for live rock band performances. One on Federal Boulevard was converted into a missionary megachurch.

Libraries are beautiful public spaces, but I can't think off hand of what has become of any of them, despite the fact that I know some that have closed fairly recently, and others that are at grave risk of closing.

An old grocery store, converted to a church, near East High School, originally slated to become a new Central Denver Recreation Center, has wound up for the time being, as a community garden and dog park instead. Across the street, an old live theater has been converted into a book store, record store and restaurants, as well as a movie theater that died and since has been reborn with the Denver Film Society relocating there from Tivoloi on the Denver's Auraria campus.

Challenges To Come

This, of course, only scratches the surface of the general issue of finding new uses for no longer needed properties. Greater Denver has a variety of spaces that need repurposing.

Old Saint Luke's Hospital has now become Post Properties in the rechristened Uptown, and Old Elitch Gardens has become a residential development (which defeated efforts to have a Wal-Mart put in their neighborhood, only to have one spring up ten blocks down the road in Lakeside). The old Children's Hospital Campus is reportedly going to be the home for a new Saint Joseph's hospital, because its existing tower has fire code issues.

But, the disposition of the old University Hospital, abandoned in part of the effort to remake the old Fitzsimmon's military base and turned over to a redevelopment company, is not yet clear. In a year or two when Saint Anthony's Hospital off Colfax in Northwest Denver relocates into its under construction new facility, there will be yet another big hole for Denver to fill in a space where the impetus for new development has not been as vigorous.

A defunct public school which has passed from one speculative investor group to another in the Golden Triangle remains vacant. Ironically, the neighorhood has transformed enough that it could really use a school again, although that use for the space seems unlikely.

Denver also has its brownfields. The financial crisis stalled the redevelopment of the Old Gates Rubber Plant, but sooner or later, it will have to find a new use. I know of a couple of families who have turned old industrial buildings in North Denver into residences and art studios. Between Sante Fe and Kalamath a few blocks North of Alameda, old industrial properties have been repurposed to be a micro-distillery and a Hispanic cultural center. Another old public building near the Auraria campus off Colfax was also repurposed to be a cultural center. Perhaps this trend will continue.

The Coming Inversion Of Center And Fringe

Maybe Denver proper will be O.K.

Infill construction has continued steadily while suburban Denver construction came to a screeching halt. The rising price of gas, increased dissatisfaction with long commutes, and increasing public faith in the Denver Public Schools, represented most recently by a remarkable surge in middle school enrollments may fuel an influx of new people to the central city. For most of history from the Middle Ages until the construction of street cars, central cities were considered more desireable than the urban fringe. Street cars created street car suburbs, like Washington Park. Interstate highways pushed attractive housing even further away from the core for a generation or two. But, the trend seems to be reversing itself. It may be only a matter of time before the metro area's ghettos are in Highland's Ranch instead of already gentrifying Five Points.
READ MORE - How Will We Use Vacant Public Space?

Jumat, 10 Desember 2010

The Economics of Place

Suppose that the 300 million people who live in the United States were all bunched together at the population density of Brooklyn. And for those not familiar with it, Brooklyn is certainly not the most densely populated part of New York City (that would be Manhattan). Denver's Capital Hill neighborhood, for example, is more densely populated than Brooklyn. So, how much space would it take to fit the population of the United States in one place at Brooklyn's population density?

Answer: About the land area of New Hampshire "with extra room for parks (because Brooklyn could use more)."

Of course, not all activities necessary for the survival of the United States economy and civilization can function at that population density. A big chunk of the United States is farmland and the 2%-3% of the population in the farm economy would have to be spread out to tend those farms. Likewise, another 1%-2% or so of the population is engaged in harvesting lumber, fishing, and mining, which likewise have to be undertaken where the resources are located.

Even these intensely location dependent industries continue to grow less labor intensive. Less than half of all farms produce a very large share of all agricultural output in the United States. Shrinking wild fish resources mean that in the future there will be fewer fishermen. Recycling has muted the demand for newly mined metals. An increasingly paperless world needs less pulpwood than it used to require. Energy efficient technologies have reduced the amount of energy consumed in the course of making each $1,000 of GDP.

But, for the most part, location is a matter of choice. Historically, for example, car factories and other heavy industry in the United States was located in Rust Belt in cities like Detroit, Flint, Toledo, Cleveland, Buffalo and Pittsburg. But, there's nothing sacred about that today given the much reduced cost of transportation. A new automobile assembly plant was recently built in Mississippi, and the old guard of internal combustion engine automobile makers recently handed over an automobile assembly plant in California to a new guard company set on making electric cars. Some of the cars you see on the street were made in Japan (which is famous for its utter dearth of natural resources) and Germany, both of which are half a world away, even though a car is one of the heaviest goods (and hence most expensive to transport) that the average person owns other than a home. Vehicles are made in North American both in Mexico, just across the border from El Paso, Texas, and in Ontario, just across the border from Buffalo and Detroit. Manufacturing enterprises have immense freedom to locate pretty much anywhere they want, subject to very modest constraints.

Most of the economy, retail trade, hotels, branch commercial banking, gas stations, post offices, schools, hospitals, construction, government, and so on, needs to be located conveniently to the people who buy the goods and services they offer but aren't intrinsically connected to any particular place. There is very little that is done in Denver that couldn't be done just as functionally in Fort Collins or Colorado Springs had the path of history taken a slightly different step.

We also have quite a few industries where geography is absolutely critical, but it is critical because the industries operate in national or international marketplaces where proximity to industry colleagues is critical. New York is the center of the American investment banking industry because it started there and never left, and because there is considerably value in that industry in being able to have face to face meetings with other members of the investment banking community on short notice, not because the intrinsic geographic benefits of New York, like its status as a port city, have any continuing relevance to what the financial industry does there these days. The same is true for some of New York City's other major industries like television, publishing, and live theater. These industries are prominent simply because they thrive on large local markets and intra-industry interactions, and the New York City metropolitan area is one of the largest local markets in the country with the most established publishing houses and theater scenes. It is helpful to have key parts suppliers for a company near the company that makes the final product, particularly if the parts are physically large, the demand for them fluctuates unpredictably, and it may be necessary to make adjustments to return or modify parts that don't quite fit.

Indeed, industry inertia frequently trumps considerations of geography that would seem to be important. Lots of movies set in the United States are filmed in Prague or Toronto, for example. A majority of publicly held companies in the United States are incorporated in a suburb of Philadelphia called the state of Delaware that doesn't have any notable skyscrapers of its own (the pyramid of Giza built by the ancient Egyptians was 451 feet tall, while the tallest building in the state, the Chase Wilmington Building, is 330 feet tall), lacks an Ivy League college or a prestigious law school, is the only state in the United States without commercial air service, and closes its bars at 1 a.m. The state doesn't even have a single major league professional sports team of its own.

Even industries you might think of as highly location dependent, like tourism, aren't quite as bound to a particular place as you might think. Las Vegas could have been built anywhere within a moderate drive from a major population center. Disneyland and Disney World are likewise not to tightly tied to the world beyond their walls, a fact evidenced by the fact that new ones have sprung up across the world.

If a Nor'easter did to New York City what Hurricane Katrina did to New Orleans, with a similar amount of lead time to allow most people to evacuate, and the Mayor of New York City convinced everyone to move to Fargo at some critical moment, the city that never sleeps could be rebuilt in the Great Plains and continue on a more or less business as usual basis. Something is lost in translation at first, as we observe in cases where national capitals are relocated to completely planned cities like Canberra, Australia and Brasilia, Brazil. Washington D.C. was established on that kind of basis as well, but has aged enough into a character of its own that we tend to forget that fact.

The disconnect between economic activity and location is relatively new. In the 1920s, for example, close proximity to natural resources, consumers, water routes and rail lines was much more important for manufacturing firms. Until World War II, a much larger share of the population lived on farms.

Telecommunications have gotten cheap even more recently. I used to spend a large share of my monthly budget on long distance phone charges so that I could talk with the woman I would later marry when I was in law school, while she was half way across the country going to school somewhere else. These days, there is usually no extra charge for long distance calls relative to local ones. The postal service is coughing up red ink because information can be sent for a near zero marginal cost over the Internet and so people don't send letters nearly as often.

It isn't that location is irrelevant. But, today, what matters is "who lives there?" and "how nice of a place is it to live?" Not, "what is there?"
READ MORE - The Economics of Place

Rabu, 08 Desember 2010

Denver Bike Program Ends First Season

Denver launched its B-Cycle program, a system of bike rentals kiosks, this year, in cooperation with the non-profit Denver Bike Sharing, and its first season is now over as it shuts down until March.

This season it had 500 bikes and about 50 kiosks, mostly in the vicinity of downtown Denver, Cherry Creek and the University of Denver, with some points in between. "In the seven months since it launched April 22, Denver B-cycle hit nearly 103,000 rides, selling 1,784 annual memberships and more than 32,900 short-term memberships." Short term memberships were $5 to $30 depending on length, annual memberships were $65. Rental rates, in addition to the membership costs, ranged from free to $8.80 per hour, depending on the length of use (longer rentals cost more). Next season's plans include a simpler fee structure, adjustment of kiosk locations to reflect the demand levels in different locations, and improvements to the touch screen interface of the kiosks.

Notably, no Denver taxes go towards the programs, although Denver does maintain at taxpayer expense, a bike path system in the city and has made city property available for kiosks to be set up upon. The program is funded with user fees (my back of napkin math suggests that those fees are more than $300,000, perhaps quite a bit more), donations and a $210,000 grant.
READ MORE - Denver Bike Program Ends First Season